Premier League relegation odds 2025/26: Promoted trio tipped to struggle again
The new Premier League season is underway and we could have another dramatic relegation battle in store.
In each of the last two campaigns, the three promoted clubs have gone straight back down, calling the competitive balance between the top two divisions into question. Leeds United, Burnley and Sunderland have all made promising starts, however, and put at least one win apiece on the board.
If they can continue to regularly add points to their tallies, several established top-flight teams will begin to look nervously over their shoulders. The demotion dogfight will be intense from start to finish - here is our analysis of the Premier League relegation odds and the sides expected to be involved.
⬇️ Latest Premier League relegation odds
Here are the odds from our recommended football bookies:
- Burnley - 1/3 with bet365
- Wolverhampton Wanderers - 17/20 with BetMGM
- Sunderland - 17/20 with Paddy Power
- Leeds United - 9/4 with Betfred
- Brentford - 5/2 with talkSPORT BET
- West Ham United - 3/1 with AK Bets
- Fulham - 8/1 with Midnite
- Nottingham Forest - 9/1 with Betway
- Everton - 16/1 with AK Bets
- Crystal Palace - 16/1 with Paddy Power
- Manchester City - 20/1 with William Hill
- Aston Villa - 20/1 with Tote
- Bournemouth - 22/1 with Spreadex
- Brighton & Hove Albion - 33/1 with Betfred
- Manchester United - 50/1 with bet365
- Newcastle United - 100/1 with BetMGM
- Tottenham Hotspur - 150/1 with Betway
- Chelsea - 500/1 with Midnite
- Arsenal - 1000/1 with William Hill
- Liverpool - 1500/1 with BetMGM
*Odds are subject to change (Updated on 10th September)
⬇️ Teams most in danger of Premier League relegation
There are several contenders for Premier League relegation in 2025/26 - in this section we have taken a closer look at the sides who have been tipped to struggle all season long, and a few who may get dragged into the battle if dealt a particularly bad hand.
😟 Burnley - 1/3
The odds on Premier League relegation reveal that Burnley are the favourites to go down this season. The gulf between the top two divisions is growing ever wider and Burnley were some way off the required standard the last time they were in the top flight.
Vincent Kompany’s insistence on trying to play possession-based football did not aid their cause in 2023/24, so Scott Parker’s more pragmatic team might be more competitive this time around.
Burnley only conceded 16 goals in the Championship last season - a record low in English football - but they have already lost goalkeeper James Trafford to Manchester City and centre back CJ Egan-Riley to Marseille this summer. Their squad looks considerably short of Premier League quality.
Their only points so far have come, perhaps crucially, against Sunderland although they were also seconds away from earning a draw at Old Trafford. September looks like another tough month with Liverpool next up at Turf Moor and a trip to the Etihad on the horizon.
⬇️ Bet on Burnley to go down at 1/3 with bet365 ⬇️
😟 Wolverhampton Wanderers - 17/20
Having lost their star man following a 16th-place finish last term, there will be plenty of bets placed on Wolverhampton Wanderers falling through the trapdoor this season. Matheus Cunha’s departure will be keenly felt given how integral he was to Wolves’ attacking play in 2024/25.
Rayan Aït-Nouri and Pablo Sarabia have also bid farewell to Molineux, so much depends on how well new boys Jhon Arias, Fer López and David Møller Wolfe perform. If they struggle to make an impact, Wolves could find themselves in a spot of bother.
It hasn't started well the West Midlanders, in fact they were the only team not to pick up a point before the first international break. This has seen their odds shrink from 3/1 before a ball was kicked to 17/20.
⬇️ Bet on Wolves to be demoted at 17/20 with BetMGM ⬇️
😟 Sunderland - 17/20
Having achieved a surprise promotion last time out, Sunderland will be underdogs in most of the matches they play this year. Many pre-season predictions have them in the bottom three, but the Black Cats will not mind being written off.
They have been busy in the transfer market, with the experienced Granit Xhaka the headline addition, as well as the likes of Simon Adingra and Habib Diarra, but Jobe Bellingham has been sold to Borussia Dortmund. It's been a very positive start so far with home wins against West Ham and Brentford - both of whom may also find themselves in the scrap.
As the season goes on, however, the bookies expect the points and wins to dry up and they are still deemed one of the three most likely to go down in what is their first season back at this level since 2016/17.
⬇️ Tip Sunderland to finish in the bottom three at 17/20 with Paddy Power ⬇️
😟 Leeds United - 9/4
The statistics from the last couple of years suggest Leeds, as a promoted club, have their work cut out, but they look the best equipped of the three coming up to stay up. That is not only because they won the Championship title in 2024/25.
Granted, Daniel Farke does not have a great record in the Premier League, but this time he guides a club with much greater resources in Leeds. They have spent the summer adding more physicality to a team that will have much less possession this season compared to last.
Aside from a 5-0 drubbing at Arsenal, The Whites have looked more solid than in their last Premier League stint - keeping clean sheets against Everton and Newcastle and picking up four points from those games. Goals may be hard to come by, however, with their only one so far coming via the penalty spot.
⬇️ Go for Leeds to be relegated at 9/4 with Betfred ⬇️
😟 Brentford - 5/2
The relegation odds have Brentford as the second weakest team out of the 17 who were in the Premier League last season. They have lost their inspirational manager Thomas Frank to Tottenham Hotspur, while top scorers Bryan Mbeumo and Yoann Wissa jumped ship to Manchester United and Newcastle United respectively.
Keith Andrews is an unknown quantity as Frank’s successor, but Brentford’s smart owners tend to get the big decisions right. Jordan Henderson brings valuable experience in the centre of the park, but Brentford will struggle to replicate last season’s 10th-place finish. You feel that they would take seventeenth if you offered it to them right now in what is going to be a bumpy transition season.
⬇️ Select Brentford to finish below the dotted line at 5/2 with talkSPORT BET ⬇️
😟 West Ham United - 3/1
West Ham endured a disappointing campaign in 2024/25 and couldn't have made a worse start to this one with heavy defeats to Sunderland and Chelsea.
A 3-0 win at Forest before the international break will have eased the mounting pressure on Graham Potter, who has so far lost more games than he's won since taking over in the middle of last season.
Lucas Paquetá no longer has those spot-fixing charges hanging over him, and they still have captain Jarrod Bowen as chief goal-getter. Mohammed Kudus left for Spurs and the exciting playmaker Matheus Fernandes arrived from Southampton, but it can be argued that West Ham's squad on paper isn't much stronger - if at all - than before the transfer window.
⬇️ Take up odds of 3/1 on West Ham going down with AK Bets ⬇️
😟 Fulham - 8/1
Fulham have finished in comfortable 10th, 13th and 11th positions since their return to the Premier League in 2022 but are one of four winless sides from the first three games this time around.
The West Londoners should have more than enough quality to kickstart their season soon though, with new wingers Kevin and Samuel Chukwueze ready to be introduced to the lineup after the international break.
⬇️ Go for Fulham to slide into the bottom three finishers this season at 8/1 with Midnite ⬇️
😟 Nottingham Forest - 9/1
The headline Premier League news over the international break came from the East Midlands with Evangelos Marinakis wielding the axe on Nuno Espírito Santo after the Portuguese manager recently admitted publicly that the pair's relationship had strained.
On the pitch, Forest have made a fine start - beating Brentford on opening day and taking a point at Palace before a disappointing late collapse against West Ham.
Ange Postecoglu has been immediately installed as the new boss at the City Ground, just months after winning a European trophy with Tottenham. Forest will hope to cash in on that recent experience as they begin their first continental adventure in 30 years in the coming weeks, but will also need the Aussie to keep them clear of trouble domestically.
⬇️ Tip the tricky trees to have a tricky season at 9/1 with Betway ⬇️
😟 Everton - 16/1
David Moyes turned things around at Everton last season, ensuring they move into their new stadium as a Premier League side. Keen to have more competition for places within the squad this season, he will be pleased that the board has sanctioned deals for the likes of Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Tyler Dibling as well as Jack Grealish on loan.
Moyes has been there and done it at this level, and he knows Everton as well as anyone. His Toffees team will be tough to beat, but it will be interesting to see how quickly they adapt to their new home. They got off to a winning start there against Brighton.
⬇️ Choose Everton to be one of the relegated trio at 16/1 with AK Bets ⬇️
😟 Crystal Palace - 16/1
Crystal Palace won their first ever major trophy in the form of the FA Cup in May, but it is not beyond the realms of possibility that they suffer a sharp regression following such a historic high.
The Eagles lost star man Ebere Eze but were able to retain Adam Wharton and Marc Guéhi - the latter, however, had a move to Liverpool essentially agreed but Palace were unable to secure a replacement before the deadline.
Palace were one of the least active teams in the market, eventually striking deals for exciting winger Yéremy Pino from Villarreal and Jaydee Canvot from Toulouse on deadline day. As the autumn and winter months roll in, we will find out how well their relatively thin squad copes with playing in Europe.
⬇️ Consider Crystal Palace as a relegation candidate at 16/1 with Paddy Power ⬇️
My Premier League relegation betting tips
Here are four Premier League relegation-themed betting tips to consider for the campaign ahead.
⬇️ Sunderland to be relegated - 17/20
Sunderland achieved promotion ahead of schedule last season, so it was always important that they strengthened their squad in the transfer window. But even after a busy summer, and getting a couple of wins in early, the Black Cats will at some point endure a losing run in 2025/26. Régis Le Bris is a talented young coach, but he has his work cut out this season.
⬇️ Back Sunderland to be relegated at 17/20 with Paddy Power ⬇️
☝️ Leeds to be the best promoted club - 10/11
Leeds and Burnley both picked up 100 points in the Championship last time out, but the former have the better chance of getting the results to avoid Premier League relegation.
There were rumours that the hierarchy may look to replace Daniel Farke in the summer, so as to bring in a manager with a better record in the top flight. Those stories ended up being wide of the mark and so far, the German has shown a greater level of adaptability to his approach here - compared to his two attack-minded Norwich teams, both of which proved to be too easy to play against at this level.
☝️ Select Leeds as the best promoted club at 10/11 with Betway ☝️
⬇️ Burnley to finish bottom - 9/5
Not many people fancy Burnley’s chances of staying up, but the Clarets will be determined to prove the doubters wrong. Unfortunately, we envisage a tough season for Scott Parker’s team, who could struggle to score enough goals to avoid an instant return to the second tier.
⬇️ Tip Burnley to finish bottom at 9/5 with Paddy Power ⬇️
⚽ Burnley/Sunderland/Wolves relegation treble - 7/1
There are numerous potential outcomes in the relegation treble market, but Burnley-Sunderland-Wolves is our favoured combination. Wolves were one of the weakest teams in the Premier League in 2024/25 and they have since lost three key players in the transfer market.
⚽ Choose Burnley, Sunderland and Wolves to go down at 7/1 with talkSPORT BET ⚽
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⚽ Who suffered relegation from the Premier League last season?
For the second season in a row, the three promoted clubs were relegated back to the Championship in 2024/25.
Southampton, play-off winners the previous year, struggled from start to finish. Their tally of 12 points was enough for them to avoid becoming the worst team in Premier League history, but that was the only positive they could take from a dismal campaign. A lack of pragmatism was a major issue under Russell Martin, but Southampton were poor after his sacking too.
Leicester City were dour but competitive under Steve Cooper, but the former Nottingham Forest boss never won over the club’s fans. His successor Ruud van Nistelrooy was a disaster, with Leicester going nine consecutive home games without even scoring a goal. They never really looked like surviving after Christmas.
Ipswich Town were the most competitive member of the trio, but it was always going to take a monumental effort for Kieran McKenna to keep them up. Ipswich were playing in League One two seasons earlier, so a lack of quality at the very highest level was forgivable. The Tractor Boys are looking to bounce back in 2025/26.
⚽ How previous Premier League relegation battles have played out
Even today, Premier League managers routinely reference “40 points” as their principal target at the beginning of a season. Traditionally that was seen as the amount of points required to stay in the division - the safety threshold, if you will - but in recent years numerous teams have survived without accumulating that many.
In each of the last nine campaigns, 35 points would have been sufficient for survival. In three of those seasons, a mere 30 points would have seen a team finish above the dreaded dotted line. Meanwhile 40 points was what 14th-placed West Ham got in 2022/23.
Being bottom at Christmas is usually fatal for a team’s survival ambitions. In 28 out of the 32 Premier League seasons, the side propping up the table on December 25 has gone on to finish in the drop zone. No one wants to be bottom of the standings when the turkey is served.
😮 The greatest escapes in Premier League history
While no one wants their team to be in the bottom three in March or April, history shows that it pays to keep fighting until relegation is mathematically confirmed. Down the years, several Premier League sides have pulled off escape acts that would have impressed Harry Houdini.
In 2004/05, West Bromwich Albion were the first team in Premier League history to avoid relegation having been bottom at Christmas. After winning just one of their first 23 matches, and only two of their first 27, optimism was in short supply at The Hawthorns. But Bryan Robson’s men rallied late on, taking a respectable 16 points from the last 33 on offer to keep their heads above water.
Sunderland fans had a sinking feeling for much of the 2013/14 season. A dismal start saw Paolo Di Canio fired in September, and it looked like Gus Poyet would take the team down to the Championship. But Sunderland upset the relegation odds Premier League late on, drawing 2-2 with Manchester City and then winning four games in a row (including one against José Mourinho’s Chelsea) to overturn a seven-point deficit.
Leicester City stunned the football world when they won the title in 2015/16, but they were very nearly relegated the year before. Nigel Pearson’s team found themselves six points adrift of safety at the start of April, but a thrilling run of seven wins in their final nine fixtures saw them finish all the way up in 14th.
⏬ Which teams in this year’s Premier League have been relegated most often?
Norwich City hold the unwanted record of being the most relegated team in Premier League history, having gone down six times since 1992/93. They are followed by West Brom and Leicester on five demotions apiece.
None of that trio is in the top flight this season, though, which means Burnley and Sunderland (four each) have suffered the most relegations of the current top 20. A glance at the Premier League relegation betting odds shows that the bookmakers would not be surprised if both clubs joined West Brom and Leicester on five relegations in 2025/26.
Crystal Palace and Fulham comfortably finished in mid-table last time out, but with three relegations to their name neither London side is immune to the drop. Nottingham Forest, European qualifiers in 2024/25, have also dropped out of the Premier League on three occasions.
Elsewhere, Leeds, Manchester City, Newcastle United, West Ham and Wolves have all been relegated twice in the past 32 years. Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham, Everton, Brighton & Hove Albion, Brentford have never been relegated from the Premier League, with the first six of those teams the only ever-presents.
🙋♂️ FAQs about the 2025/26 Premier League season
1. What will be the key fixtures to look out for in this season’s relegation battle?
Any meetings between the three promoted clubs will be important in the battle against relegation. Burnley have already won a potentially crucial three points against Sunderland, and they will host Leeds on 18th October, with the reverse fixture scheduled for 2nd May. Sunderland play Leeds on 27th December and then again on 4th March, while the return fixture between Burnley and Sunderland will be held on 31st January.
West Ham vs Brentford is one to watch on 18th October (the return fixture is 2nd May), as is Wolves vs Brentford on 20th December (and 14th March). The final day of the season sees Leeds host West Ham and Burnley face Wolves. Could either of those games be decisive in the relegation fight?
2. How often do struggling teams benefit from a “new manager bounce”?
It is common for struggling Premier League sides to change their manager in a bid to turn things around. A positive upturn in form following the appointment of a new boss is often called the “new manager bounce”. But the evidence on its success as a strategy is mixed.
There have certainly been occasions when employing a new head coach has brought about a turnaround in fortunes. It did not take long for Roy Hodgson to work his magic at West Brom in 2010/11. Paul Clement rescued Swansea City after being appointed midway through the 2016/17 campaign. Just last season, David Moyes had a near-instant impact after replacing Sean Dyche at Everton.
Yet it does not always work. Last season also saw Leicester go backwards under Ruud van Nistelrooy following the dismissal of Steve Cooper. Having got rid of Mick McCarthy, Wolves got worse under Terry Connor in 2011/12. Sunderland experienced the same misfortune in 2002/03, when neither Howard Wilkinson nor McCarthy could improve results sufficiently to keep them up.
Sometimes, sticking with a manager pays dividends. Leicester kept faith in Nigel Pearson in 2014/15 and were rewarded with a remarkable late rally which saw them snatch survival from the jaws of relegation. On other occasions, relegation-threatened clubs have been mistaken to back a struggling manager - think Avram Grant at West Ham in 2009/10.
In conclusion, there is no hard-and-fast rule on whether or not it is beneficial to change your manager in a relegation battle.
3. How quickly can a team be drawn into the relegation battle?
Very quickly, if they are not careful. It does not take much for a Premier League team to slide down the standings and suddenly find themselves embroiled in a fight for their top-tier status.
Promoted from the Championship via the play-offs, Hull City carried that momentum into the Premier League in 2008/09. Their performance in the early part of the season was superb and they sat sixth in the middle of December, but their form completely collapsed thereafter. With just one win in their last 22 matches, Phil Brown’s team survived by the skin of their teeth.
Leicester were not so lucky in 2022/23. They beat Tottenham 4-1 in February to move into 13th place with the top half in their sights. But Leicester went on to lose eight of their next nine games to plummet down the table and, despite beating West Ham 2-1 on the final day, they were relegated.
It is never advisable to celebrate survival before it is 100 percent guaranteed. After beating Ipswich 3-1 on 1st May 1993, Crystal Palace players did a lap of honour at Selhurst Park having moved eight points clear of trouble. But the Eagles went on to lose their last two games, and an extraordinary sequence of three wins in seven days saw Oldham Athletic overtake them to send Palace down.
4. How much of an impact can injuries and suspensions have in terms of shaking up the relegation battle?
Luck is a big factor in every sport and football is no exception. Injuries and suspensions can be the difference between survival and relegation, particularly for smaller clubs in the division who tend to have less strength in depth.
When they went down in 2021/22, Leeds had to make do without top scorer Patrick Bamford, midfield talisman Kalvin Phillips and defensive leader Liam Cooper for a large chunk of the campaign. Those absences contributed massively to their failure to stay up.
Had they kept more players fit, Reading might have survived in 2007/08. Unfortunately for the 18th-placed Royals, their players missed a cumulative 400 days more to injury than Fulham, who finished 17th.
However, a busy treatment room does not necessarily condemn a struggling side to relegation. Charles N'Zogbia, Christian Benteke, Fabian Delph and Jores Okore were all sidelined for significant periods in 2013/14, but Aston Villa still did enough to retain their Premier League place.
About the author
Greg Lea
Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.
Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball
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